The Worse It Gets, The Better it Gets
Daniel Drezner says Bush's chances of winning in November improve if the situation in Iraq doesn't stabilize. He figures that since Bush's poll numbers haven't been hurt in recent weeks it's because voters don't think Kerry's alternate approach is, in fact, much of an alternative at all. It's an interesting analysis and worth reading.
Drezner also links to a Krauthamer Op-Ed debunking Kerry's Iraq strategy. Krauthamer's point was much the same one I made earlier this month. If the point weren't so obvious I'd complain.