Who Can Really Say?

Paradox

Via Beldar Blog, Kevin Drum gives advice to Kerry:

Now, I happen to agree with Tomasky that Republicans generally go for the jugular more effectively than Democrats, but it's a big mistake for us liberals to kid ourselves into thinking that Republicans win elections solely because they fool people into voting for them. It's not just that this is a debilitating mental attitude — although it is — but it's also not true. Our main problem isn't that this year's campaign has ignored the issues, our main problem is that the #1 issue in this campaign is national defense, and on that issue — like it or not — the majority of Americans favor the Republican position. If John Kerry wants to win, he should focus on the issues, but he has to focus on the issues that matter most in this campaign cycle.

It's all about 9/11, Iraq, terrorism, and national security, baby. This election is going to be won on that issue, and Kerry needs to convince the country that he can handle it better than Bush. And really, considering the botch Bush has made of national security, that shouldn't be all that hard.

Bottom line: Republicans aren't avoiding the issues. It's just that their signature issue happens to be the one people care most about this year. Democrats had better figure that out pronto.

I think Kevin is spot on in identifying the problem, but he doesn't acknowledge the difficulty Kerry has with the proposed solution. The majority of Americans favor the Republican solution because too many Democrats in the party's base will do anything to avoid a military solution, even when confronted with a problem that begs for that solution (Gulf War I is Exhibit A, for example, which Kerry voted against). Kerry has sought votes from these folks for twenty some years and he's pandered to them often enough. Still, over a year ago when the primary season first ramped up Kerry was not really out there in front with Howard Dean, attacking the decision to oust Saddam at every moment. Eventually though, Kerry more or less joined Dean in many respects. So, in order to win the nomination Kerry had to be all things to all Democrats including Dean's supporters, and as a result he's never found a convincing, credible voice on national defense issues with appeal beyond the anti-military wing of the Democratic party.

And now, even if he takes Kevin's advice, Kerry will have a difficult time avoiding the criticism that he's "just saying that to get elected." This has been the paradox of the Democratic campaign for the White House stretching back for well over a year -- how do you rally the anti-military base and at the same time convince the rest of us you've got what it takes to win War? Kerry can argue that Bush has botched the job and that he would do a better job, but he's terribly short of time to resurrect any credibility on the subject.

UPDATE: Stephen Green agrees.

Posted by Peter at September 15, 2004 07:06 PM