Who Can Really Say?

Predicting the Pollster

The Mystery Pollster has been thinly slicing likely voter models for days now -- so thin he's emulating Paul Cicero's fine work on a clove of garlic in Goodfella's.

He says he's posting later today and maybe he'll roll the dice too and make a call. Since everyone's predicting who'll win tomorrow, I'll fight the crowd and predict that Mystery Pollster will call a Kerry win with 51% or less of the popular vote. Why? Because he's secure in the theory that late deciders will move to the challenger, and Bush is far enough below 50% for Kerry to overcome his small lead.

UPDATE: The MP thinks Kerry will win a very closely contested race in Ohio.

SECOND UPDATE: Welcome Mystery Pollster visitors! I never would have predicted thought that he'd link to me.

Posted by Peter at November 1, 2004 06:18 PM