Who Can Really Say?

Sorry you missed it Mom!

The heavens are in balance and the world is as it was meant to be. Oh, sorry, I'm not talking about the election yesterday -- I'm referring to the visits and page views tallied by Sitemeter for WCRS yesterday. I had over 900 visits and 1200 page views, mostly due to a fortuitous link to Mystery Pollster on Monday night. Today, it's back to a sedate 20. I feel like a teenager who just had sex for the first time and wonders if it will ever happen again.

Anyway, back to the real world. There's a tons of stuff floating around about what happened and what it all means and what's going to happen next and when will this sentence end. (Well except for that last bit.) I don't have it in me at the moment to make more coherent comments so I'm going to fall back on the tried and true list 'o links with maybe some extra stuff thrown in. So in no particular order --

I might as well start out with the Mystery Pollster, my most beneficent benefactor.

Obviously, these topics deserve more careful consideration once we have final results, but it is obvious that (a) the incumbent rule did not apply and (b) that the consensus of the national polls was reasonably close to the final result. While the turnout was heavy, it did not conceal any hidden Kerry vote, as I speculated it might. If anything, the polls slightly underestimated Bush's national margin.

Why? One big clue should have been the failure of the incumbent rule in 2002, when a number of incumbents received more support on Election Day than on their final polls. In retrospect, I dismissed that contradictory evidence too quickly. John Kerry's lead pollster, Mark Mellman, was of clearer mind when he wrote this past Sunday:

We simply do not defeat an incumbent president in wartime. After wars surely, but never in their midst. Republicans have been spinning this fact for months, and they are correct.

A point well taken.

As I said before (too tired to find the links but do a search for "incumbent rule" on the right if you're interested), I thought it would be very interesting to see how the incumbent rule played out here, and based my prediction of MP's prediction upon it. I figure that when the dust settles, and the polls are pulled apart and compared to the results, there will be some new wisdom if not new "conventional wisdom". In case you're wondering, conventional wisdom is wisdom until it isn't. MP's been wondering what to do next with his blog. I hope he keeps it alive if even intermittently -- there's no other accesible, down to earth analysis of this stuff on the planet.

I missed this little pissing contest between blogospheric giants that took place right before the election. Jeff Jarvis is nonpareil in his rejection of nasty partisanship and media cocooning. In recent weeks as the election got closer, his usually friendly and mutually supportive relationship with Glenn Reynolds has been frayed. Jarvis thought Instapundit too often played to the partisan noise in the campaign, and I think Jarvis also held that against Reyonlds because Instapundit is so influential. The other day Jarivs wrote a post-election pledge. Many others have taken it so far. Instapundit linked to the pledge, but referenced an alternate one that he'd previously taken instead of joining the bandwagon, a subtle but not missed point as you'll see if you follow the link below. And he later linked to a very different pledge from Spoons Exprience.

So I won't quote from it, but read the exchange Jeff posted after Instapundit linked to a story on Monday (that had been rumored since Friday) about how Kerry may have only received a general discharge, rather than an honorable one.

I've gotta link to James Joyner, who's Outside the Beltway feature has helped boost the scant readership here too. He rubs it in, but gently or at least relatively so. For a heavier dose of schadenfreude, try Vodka Pundit's "The Official Nelson Muntz "HA-Ha!" Gloating List".

Tim Blair thanks the Guardian for helping to pull Clarke County, OH for Bush.

Eugene Volokh identifies what may be the irony of the election -- that the MA Supreme Court's decision in the Goodrich case (requiring the state to allow gays to marry) prompted propositions defining marriage as exclusively between men and women in 11 states, thus increasing the turnout, resulting in the affirmance of each of the 11 Amendments, and forming the base for Bush's support. Karl Rove may be an evil genius indeed.

I don't know if that holds water but if it does, it will just be piling on upon the irony underlying Bill Clinton's travails in 1998. Had Clinton not supported and signed an amendment to the federal sexual harrassment laws, he'd never have had to answer the questions in the Paula Jones case that got him in so much trouble to begin with.

Michael Totten, still guest blogging at Instapundit, has a list of reactions among the lefter blog. Some of it is nasty, and some of it is realistic. And he links to Jarvis so I guess Glenn hasn't banned references (just kidding).

I found these links all over and apologize if I don't give credit. Sheez, for all I know I found this on Totten's list. Anyway, Harry's Place has a short bit that falls into the realist camp.

On the other hand, here's Eric Alterman on MSNBC missing the point entirely.

Let’s face it. It’s not Kerry’s fault. It’s not Nader’s fault (this time). It’s not the media’s fault (though they do bear a heavy responsibility for much of what ails our political system). It’s not “our” fault either. The problem is just this: Slightly more than half of the citizens of this country simply do not care about what those of us in the “reality-based community” say or believe about anything.

Excuse me while I wipe off the condescension and disdain.

To follow up, Nicholas Kristoff starts out his column in the NYT today --

In the aftermath of this civil war that our nation has just fought, one result is clear: the Democratic Party's first priority should be to reconnect with the American heartland.

I'm writing this on tenterhooks on Tuesday, without knowing the election results. But whether John Kerry's supporters are now celebrating or seeking asylum abroad, they should be feeling wretched about the millions of farmers, factory workers and waitresses who ended up voting - utterly against their own interests - for Republican candidates.

One of the Republican Party's major successes over the last few decades has been to persuade many of the working poor to vote for tax breaks for billionaires. Democrats are still effective on bread-and-butter issues like health care, but they come across in much of America as arrogant and out of touch the moment the discussion shifts to values.

"On values, they are really noncompetitive in the heartland," noted Mike Johanns, a Republican who is governor of Nebraska. "This kind of elitist, Eastern approach to the party is just devastating in the Midwest and Western states. It's very difficult for senatorial, Congressional and even local candidates to survive."

Well that wasn't as bad but still quite revealing. Kristoff first says that he knows better than those heartland voters do about what their economic interests are. He just thinks they're dumb because they don't buy what he's selling. But the Johanns's quote gets closer to what I think is the truth, and it's not all about religion and abortion.

Last, Ann Althouse bids adieu from her Instapundit gig with hopes similar to Jarvis's, although with a realism closer to mine.

Well that about wraps it up. Except to say that I'm sorry my Mom wasn't here this morning to get the news. Mom wasn't political at all -- oh, she was GOP all the way and all that, but she didn't involve herself with the greater affairs of the world around her. Still, I guess she knew when big stuff happened I suppose, because the earliest time I ever remember her swearing was back in November, 1960, the morning after the Kennedy-Nixon election. I was 5 years old and had just learned how to tie my shoes. Mom was upstairs and I was doing the wonderful amazing shoe-tieng thing down in the living room as I got ready to walk three blocks to Kindergarten.

Mom called down the stairs to find out who won the election -- she couldn't hear the TV up there. I told her "Kennedy".

Her reply: "Oh shit!"

And I've been watching election returns ever since. Sorry you missed it Mom!

[Linked to the Beltway Traffic Jam.]

Posted by Peter at November 3, 2004 10:04 PM